Analysis of Election Results of Ten Municipal Corporations of Maharashtra February 2017

Election Results of Ten Maharashtra Municipal Corporations – February 23, 2017

Name of the Municipal Corporation	Bharatiya Janata Party	Shiv Sena	Indian National Congress	Nationalist Congress Party	Maharashtra Nav Nirman Sena	AIMIM	Others
Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation	82	84	31	9	7	3	11
Thane M. C.	23	67	3	34	0	-	4
Pune M.C.	91	12	11	30	1	-	6
Nashik M.C.	66	35	6	6	5	-	4
Nagpur M.C.	101	3	28	1	0	-	6
Pimpri Chinchwad	78	9	0	35	1	-	5
Akola M.C.	48	8	13	5	0	-	6
Amravati M.C.	45	7	15	0	0	-	20
Solapur M.C.	49	21	14	3	0	8	7
Ulhasnagar M.C	32	25	1	4	0	-	16
The above figures are subject to change after	reviewing muncipal corporations final tally

 Results to the elections conducted on 21^st February 2017 in ten municipal corporation of Maharasthra were declared on 23^rd February 2017. Bharatiya Janata Party which is the ruling party at the Centre as well as the state has excelled in its performance in nearly 8 Municipal Corporations. Except Mumbai and Thane where Shiv Sena has emerged as party garnering majority seats, other corporations has BJP as front runner.

The BJP seems to have benefited from breaking up of their 25 year old alliance with Shiv Sena and emerged victorious in 8 Municipal Corporations out of ten. In Mumbai too BJP seats surged from 31 in 2012 to 82 while Shiv Sena showed marginal increase from 75 to 84. The Congress as well as Nationalist Congress Party were both decimated and so is the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena.  The Congress could win only 31 seats against 52 seats in 2012 thus a loss of 21 seats so did MNS. MNS could win only 7 seats against 28 in 2012, thus a loss of 21 seats.  Presumably their is a change in voting pattern. Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) got 3 seats.

The BJP raced towards victory in the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC), pushing the ruling NCP to a poor second spot. The Shiv Sena, MNS and Congress faired poorly in the PMC polls.

In  Nashik Municipal Corporation too BJP bagged majority seats ie. 67 seats compared to 37 of Shiv Sena. It has pushed Mahrashtra Navnirman Sena in fifth position.

It was in the Nashik Municipal Corporation elections that MNS tasted its first success in 2012 Municipal polls. MNS won its first elections when it bagged 40 out of 122 seats in Nashik Municipal Corporation elections in 2012 and came to power. The MNS had managed to show impressive performance in Nashik after small victory of 13 seats in 2009 Maharashtra Assembly polls. This was the time when Raj Thackeray began to see himself as a kingmaker. However 2017 elections tell a different story. 30 corporators of MNS defected to either Shiv Sena or BJP thus reducing the strength of the party before municipal elections.

In Pimpri Chinchwad , Pune and Solapur which were earlier with NCP and Congress  too BJP seats soared. Thus pushing Congress to third position.

Nagpur Municipal Corporation too has BJP majority. Shiv Sena does not have a strong base in Nagpur. Congress has managed to get just 28 seats due to infighting between factions of Vilas Muttemwar, Nitin Raut, Anees Ahmad and Satish Chaturvedi.

Aggressive and sustained campaign by the Chief Minister – Shri Devendra Fadnavis has elevated BJP to number one position in eight out of these ten Municipal Corporations. Downfall of Congress is due to leadership vacuum in state as well as in the Corporations and factional infighting during electoral campaign.    

BMC Election Analysis – February 2017

On 21^st February 2017, Ten Municipal Corporations will be going to polls. They are Thane, Ulhasnagar,  Nashik, Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Solapur, Amravati, Akola and Nagpur and  Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporations.

It will be interesting to see as to which party gets a majority in the MCGM. Shiv Sena has been ruling party in MCGM along with its partner BJP. However there were serious differences within these two parties which finally resulted in their breakup. Now Shiv Sena and BJP are contesting the civic polls independently so are Congress and NCP. MNS has faced several setbacks with many of its functionaries defecting to other parties. Other parties contesting MCGM election are ABS, MIM, Samajwadi Party and Left Front along with BBM. Republican Party of India (A) has a tie up with BJP only in MCGM elections.

If one assesses the chances of Shiv Sena winning or retaining majority in the 21^st Feb elections; a glance at Assembly Election results of 2014 may be a precursor for shaping the political future of these political parties.

During 2014 Assembly Elections, the  Mumbai Congress managed to retain only five seats unlike 17 seats out of 36 seats in 2009. Thus it lost 12 seats and fared miserably. BJP won 15 and Shiv Sena 14 seats. MIM and Samajwadi party won one seat each, while Raj Thackeray-led MNS drew a blank in the megapolis.

While having a glance at previous MCGM elections the statistics are revealing.

In 2012 Shiv Sena won 75 seats, BJP – 31, Indian National Congress - 52, NCP- 7, Maharashtra Navnirman Party – 27 and Samajwadi Party 9.

In 2007 Shiv Sena had won 84 seats, BJP – 28, Indian National Congress 75, NCP – 14, MNS – 7 and Samajwadi Party 7.

A comparison between 2007 and 2012 MCGM Elections showed a clear trend. Decline in seats of Shiv Sena from 84 seats to 75 seats. Increase in BJP seats from 28 to 31. There was a clear decline is Indian National Congress from 75 seats to 52 seats i.e. loss of 23 seats and Nationalist Congress Party from 14 seats to 7 seats. Samajwadi Party gained by 2 seats in 2012 elections. Its tally was 9 from 7 in 2007.

While decline in INCongress seats and NCP seats was drastic it was not so drastic in Shiv Sena. The decline in seats can be attributed to rise of MNS. MNS rose from 7 seats to 27 seats in 2012 thus changing political scenario.

However at present MNS has faced many defections. It did not win a single Assembly seat in 2014 Assembly elections.

So what would be the probable outcome of 2017 elections?

Looking at the present scenario anti incumbency factor could cause some dent in Shiv Sena. There have been repeated exposures of various scams in MCGM and BJP now has started targeting its former partner making allegations of corruption and non transparency. BJP campaign is lead by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and during his tenure the BJP won 52 Municipal council chairman posts which were chosen by direct elections, and has emerged as the number one party in the state.

With the government introducing direct elections for the post of president in the 147 municipal councils, the BJP won 52 seats, Shiv Sena 23, Congress 19, NCP 16 and others 28.

The BJP has surged ahead in elections for the 3,510 municipal council member seats, held on party lines, in the Congress-NCP bastions, especially in western Maharashtra.

The party-wise tally: BJP (851), Shiv Sena (514), NCP (638), Congress (643), MNS (16), BSP (9), CPM (12), local coalitions (384), Independents (324), unrecognised members (119).

In 2011, the BJP was nowhere in the reckoning in 127 out of 147 municipal councils, with its tally at 298 compared to Congress (771), NCP (916) and Shiv Sena (264).

This being the political scenario it remains to be seen whether BJP is able to capitalise on its success in Assembly Elections and Municipal Council Elections especially when there is no Modi Wave or whether Shiv Sena is able to withhold its majority in the MCGM during coming elections.

Voter participation and characteristics of the emerging political leadership: an Urban Maharashtra Study

Report by Chandana Shetye – Senior Researcher and Consultant, Urban Governance  along with YUVA Consulting (Mumbai)  for Centre for Policy Research – New Delhi   2009

Background

This is a study being undertaken as a part of the Urban Research Programme at Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi in collaboration with YUVA, Mumbai with special reference to obtaining an understanding of urban politics and its relationship to Governance in Indian metropolises. The study would be done in two phases.

Phase-I

1.         Analysis of Electorate Characteristics.

2.         Analysis of Election Data.

3.         Analysis of Candidate Characteristics.

Phase II

A Micro level turnout analysis of 15 urban assembly constituencies had been carried in this phase, which includes:

- Mumbai (6) seats

- Thane (4) seats

- Nagpur (2) seats

- Pune (3) seats

Availability of data, polling station wise, for the selected constituencies is very important and availability of this data would determine the selection of the assembly constituencies for micro analysis.

 Phase-I

The Election Characteristics and Election Data is analysed for all the urban  the constituencies of Maharashtra. There are 101 Urban Assembly Constituencies in Maharashtra. These urban assembly constituencies have more than 50 per cent of their total population as urban, based on the population estimates of 2009.  However, the detailed analysis of the candidate charecteristics is being done for the elected members of the legislative assembly.  The characteristics of the non-elected members of the important political parties are also analysed.

Database

The data in this study is being collected from the websites of the Chief Electoral Office of Maharashtra and the Chief Election Commission of India and some websites run by Civil Society Institutions such as National Election Watch etc.  The study is mainly focused on Mumbai as well as  the urban areas in the districts of Thane, Nagpur, Pune, Nasik, Raigad, Solapur, Aurangabad etc.

CURRENT SCENARIO

The 13th Assembly elections were held in Maharashtra, India on October 13, 2009. The ruling Democratic Front (Congress and NCP) contested the elections against the alliance of Shiv Sena and Bharatiya Janata Party. Voters elected the 288 members of the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly in newly organised assembly constituencies after the delimitation approved in 2008.

The results were declared on October 22, 2009.

The five regions in Maharashtra share the 288 seats as under –

            - North Maharashtra [5 districts / 47 seats].

            - Vidarbha [11 districts / 62 seats].

            - Marathwada [8 districts / 46 seats].

            - Konkan [6 districts / 75 seats].

            - Western Maharashtra [5 districts / 58 seats].

This is the first assembly election after the process of delimitation. Delimitation has changed the political geography of the state, thus it is important to have a brief look at the delimitation and its impact on the boundaries of assembly constituencies.

Close to 90 of Maharashtra's 288 assembly seats have disappeared into other constituencies has given a new shape to boundary map of assembly constituencies in Maharashtra. The number of constituencies increased in the case of Konkan region only, Mumbai alone has 36 seats now and in Thane the seats also increased from 13 to 24. In Vidharbha, Western Maharashtra and North Maharashtra the number of seats have decreased, and in Marathwada the numbers of seats are same.

1.  ANALYSIS OF ELECTORATE CHARACTERISTIC

Maharashtra is the second most populous state in the Indian Union as per the census of India. The population growth rate estimates population of Maharashtra in 2009 to be 114.13 million. Out of the total population 75.85 million is population of the total voters in the state. i.e. about 66%  population of Maharashtra is eligible to vote.

Maharashtra is also described as one of the country’s leading urbanised state: this is borne out by the 2001 census (42.4% and second rank).  As per the growth estimates, in 2009 the total urban population in the state is 52.12 million, i.e. 45.7% of total population of 2009.

101 (out of 288) assembly constituencies can be called as urban because of having more than 50% population as urban. Of these, 91 have 100 or near 100% urban population. Of the 101 urban assembly constituencies, 70 of these are located in the Mumbai-Thane-Pune-Nasik belt.

There are about 75.85 million voters in the state and out of which 39.77 million are male and 36.08 female. Out of these 75.85 million voters, there are 29 million urban voters in 101 urban assembly constituencies. Out of 29 million, there are 15.66 million urban male voters as well as 13.94 million female urban voters. These characteristics will definitely impact politics in urban areas. In the 101 urban assembly constituencies, the largest constituency in terms of electorate is Chinchwad in Pune dist (3.91 lakhs); in fact it also the largest constituency in the state. There are about 33 assembly constituencies out of 101 where electorate is more than 3 lakhs. The smallest constituency in terms of total electorate is Deolali Cantt in Nasik dist (2.2 lakhs), where as the smallest constituency electorate wise in the state is Kudal in Sindhudurg dist (1.8 lakhs) In Mumbai, the largest constituency is Chandivali (3.68 lakhs) and smallest is Vikhroli (2.36 lakhs).

2.  ANALYSIS OF ELECTION DATA

Results for the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly Election of 2009 were declared on 22^nd October 2009. By the end of the day the political picture for the next five years became clear.

This election is very significant in many ways:

• Firstly, the elections were fought for the first time after delimitation of constituencies. Earlier elections were fought on the constituencies formed in 1970s.
• Secondly, the election saw the emergence of Maharashtra Navnirman Sena. This three year old party was able to win 13 seats in the assembly; mainly in the urban areas.
• Thirdly, Indian National Congress emerged the largest political party with 82 seats. 
• Fourthly, there were as many as 125 rebel candidates who contested as Independents. All political parties faced rebellion.
• Fifthly, only 5% women candidates were given candidature during elections, only 11 women candidates have been elected out of 211 women candidates who contested the elections as against 3348 male candidates.

a)      Analysis of Election data at the state level

In an assembly of 288, 234 seats had been won by the two main alliances. The Congress-NCP alliance has won 144 seats as compared to BJP-Shiv Sena which won 90 assembly seats and the other smaller parties have won 31 seats, out of 12 sent to RLDS or third front- four each to PWPI and SP, one each to CPI (M), Lok Sangram, Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP) and Swabhimani Shetkari Sangathana (SSS). Among the other smaller parties Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi (BVA), Jan Surajya Shakti (JSS) managed to win two seats each. Bharip Bahujan Mahasangh (BBM) has won one seat and despite staying away from the third front.

Among the smaller parties MNS, contesting the election for the first time, managed to win 13 seats.  Independent candidates won 24 seats, among whom many are in reality the rebels from all the major parties. Maximum rebels were from NCP, managing to win 11 seats; three each were Shiv Sena and Congress rebels and one from BJP. The BSP as a party was invisible in this election as compared to the 2004 assembly election where it shared the traditional vote bank of Congress in the Vidarbha region, benefitting the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance, however the voters who voted for BSP in 2004, went back to the Congress party or the third front.

  

When we look at the regional picture, there has been dominance of Cong-NCP combine in all the regions in Maharashtra. The BJP-Shiv Sena combine could not dominate in any of the regions in Maharashtra. Only in the Vidarbha region they have won 27 seats as compared to 28 seats won by Cong-NCP in Vidarbha. The overall state picture shows MNS in top three in 72 of the 143 constituencies it contested. Out of the 13 seats in which MNS candidates won 6 were in Mumbai, all 3 seats in Nasik city, 2 seats in Thane – 1 Kalyan West and Kalyan Rural,  1 in Khadakwasla - Western Maharashtra and 1 in Kannad- Marathwada. Besides these, in 1 seat in Vidarbha, 2 in Northern Maharashtra, 2 in Thane district, 5 in Western Maharashtra and in nearly 11 seats in Mumbai the addition of votes polled by Shiv Sena-BJP and MNS candidates were more than votes secured by winning candidates of INC-NCP combine. This clearly indicates that division of votes between SS-BJP and MNS benefited Congress-NCP in nearly 20 seats.

b)     Analysis of election data of urban assembly constituencies

The Urban voter in the state has also followed the pattern of the state and shown his faith in the Congress-NCP led government.

 There are 101 urban assembly constituencies, Out of 101, 77 seats had been won by the two main alliances; out of which, 42 has been won by Congress-NCP and 35 were won by BJP-Shiv Sena and the other smaller parties have won 18 seats, out of which biggest share of 12 seats is won by MNS and 3 by Samajwadi party in Third Front and other 3 between Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi, Lok Sangram and Jan Surajya Shakti. Independent candidates won 6 assembly seats, maximum of who were rebels of NCP and Shiv Sena.

Maharashtra Navnirman Sena has won 12 seats in its first Assembly election. Thus MNS factor has proved important in 2009 Maharashtra Assembly Elections in urban areas. MNS has shown its dominance in Mumbai, Thane, Nashik and Pune.  MNS won 6 seats in Mumbai, all 3 seats in Nashik city, 2 seats in Thane – 1 Kalyan West and Kalyan Rural,  1 in Khadakwasla - Western Maharashtra and 1 in Kannad- Marathwada. MNS has won 12 seats, has stood 2^nd in 11 ACs and has been in third position in 33 ACs. Thus in 56 Assembly Constituencies out of 101 MNS is in top three positions. In nearly 11 seats in Mumbai the addition of votes polled by Shiv Sena-BJP and MNS candidates were more than votes secured by winning candidates of INC-NCP combine. This clearly indicates that division of votes between SS-BJP and MNS benefited Congress-NCP in nearly 15 seats.

Polling in the Urban Assembly Seats

The overall polling percentage in the state was 60.03%, and in the urban assembly constituencies the polling percentage was 48.62%. Ichalkaranji assembly constituency in Kolhapur district witnessed highest polling percentage while Colaba segment in south Mumbai recorded the lowest voter turnout. Ichalkaranji registered 83.6%  polling while Colaba saw a dismal 35.89% voters turning up to exercise their franchise, despite polling day being declared a public holiday.

In the specific urban areas Mumbai city and suburban areas total polling was a dismal 46.11% where as the Thane dist was even worse with 43.49% and in the urban areas in and around Pune votes polled were mere 47.13%. Thus it shows that the three major urban nerve centres of Maharashtra had the least interest in the election.

3.  ANALYSIS OF CANDIDATE CHARACTERISTICS

In the assembly election there were 3559 candidates, including 211 women fighting the election for the 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra. In urban Maharashtra, there were 1380 candidates; including 74 women candidates fought the election for the 101 urban assembly constituencies. In 1380 candidates, 707 are independents; nearly half of the candidates were independents. Highest number of contesting Candidates were in Aurnagabad East (28). While the minimum number of contesting Candidates were in Dombivali (6). Highest number of independent candidates were in Malabar Hill – 19 independent candidates contested elections and Lowest number of independent candidates in Charkop and Dombivli - only 1 independent candidate contested elections.

The candidates are analysed for five criteria’s:

1. Total Assets
2. Criminal Cases
3. Education
4. Age
5. Political background

Total Assets:

Out of the total 3559 candidates, from Maharashtra contesting the elections; 184 candidates were having assets of more than Rs 1 crore, thus there were 184 crorepatis contesting the elections. Out of these 184 crorepatis; 72 were contesting for the 101 urban assembly constituencies. Interestingly there were 28 candidates in the state with assets more than Rs 10 crore, and 21 out of 28 candidates filed there nominations from the urban assembly seats.

About 57 winning candidates have total assets in the range of 50 lakhs to 5 crore rupees and about 32 candidates have the total assets more than 5 crore rupees.

Criminal Cases:

• 55 candidates have criminal cases registered against them.
• Maharashtra Navnirman Sena 8 winner candidates have registered criminal cases against them.
• 4 Nationalist Congress Party have criminal cases registered against them.
• 12 from Bharatiya Janata Party have criminal cases registered against them.          
• 12 from Shiv Sena have criminal cases registered against them.
• 10 from Indian National Congress have criminal cases registered against them.
• 3 from Samajwadi Party have criminal cases registered against them.
• 4 Independent candidates have criminal cases registered against them.
• 1 Lok Sangram candidate has criminal case registered against him.
• 1 Jan Surajya Shakti candidate has criminal cases registered against him

Party-wise Break-up of Candidates with Criminal Cases and their Assets
Party	Total Seats Contested	Candidates with Criminal Cases	Percentage of Candidates with Criminal Cases (%)	Total Assets of each Party (Rs.)	Total Assets of Candidates with Criminal Cases in athe Party (Rs.)	Percentage of Criminal Candidate’s Total Assets to Total Assets (%)
INC	74	24	32	373,82,13,413	173,93,73,030	47
NCP	24	8	33	89,52,97,882	42,09,55,618	47
BJP	40	24	60	202,20,99,635	132,27,39,469	64
SS	59	42	71	262,73,23,284	134,43,21,171	51
MNS	71	39	55	105,09,20,989	59,77,65,597	57
Total	268	137		1033,38,55,203	540,51,54,885

Education:

5 Post Graduates, 1 Doctorate, 31 Graduates, 5 Graduates and Professionals, 14 are 12^th pass, 25 winning candidates are 10^th pass – matriculate, 9 are 8^th pass, 4 are 5^th pass, 5 winning candidates have given educational qualifications which are categorised as others and 2 have not given their qualifications.

Out of 101 winning candidates 42 candidates are graduates and more qualified where as 59 are below 12^th pass category out of which 13 are not even matriculate. 

Age

Out of 101 winning candidates only 18 are young MLAs. 73 winning candidates are middle aged and 9 winning candidates are senior citizens.

Political Background:

            The analysis of political background of candidates contesting Maharashtra Legislative Assembly election 2009 reveals that candidates contesting for 36 Legislative Assembly seats from Mumbai predominantly were either sitting corporators, sitting MLAs or ex- corporators/ex Mayors or ex- MLAs.

Conclusion

The Maharashtra legistative assembly elections and the victory for the Congress-NCP govt have proved all the pre-poll issues in the back burner. It is difficult for all the election experts to find out the reasons for the third term victory for the govt. The most common being that the MNS spoiled the chances of BJP-Shiv sena or the effect of delimitation and the urban factor. However, it is very difficult to conclude about the urban factor after analysing the data of urban Maharashtra.  The urban maharashtra followed the same pattern showed by the state in the assembly elections i.e. to vote back the Cong-NCP govt back to power.