Report by Chandana Shetye – Senior Researcher and
Consultant, Urban Governance along with
YUVA Consulting (Mumbai) for Centre for
Policy Research – New Delhi 2009
Background
This is a study being undertaken as a part of the Urban
Research Programme at Centre for Policy Research, New Delhi
Phase-I
1. Analysis
of Electorate Characteristics.
2. Analysis
of Election Data.
3. Analysis
of Candidate Characteristics.
Phase II
A
Micro level turnout analysis of 15 urban
assembly constituencies had been carried in this phase, which includes:
-
Mumbai (6) seats
-
Thane (4) seats
-
Nagpur
-
Pune (3) seats
Availability
of data, polling station wise, for the selected
constituencies is very important and availability of this data would determine
the selection of the assembly constituencies for micro analysis.
Phase-I
The Election Characteristics and
Election Data is analysed for all the urban
the constituencies of Maharashtra. There are 101 Urban Assembly Constituencies in
Maharashtra. These urban assembly constituencies have more than 50 per cent
of their total population as urban, based on the population estimates of
2009. However, the detailed analysis of
the candidate charecteristics is being done for the elected members of the
legislative assembly. The
characteristics of the non-elected members of the important political parties
are also analysed.
Database
The data in this study is being
collected from the websites of the Chief Electoral Office of Maharashtra
and the Chief Election Commission of India and some websites run by Civil
Society Institutions such as National Election Watch etc. The study is mainly focused on Mumbai as well as the urban areas in the districts of Thane,
Nagpur, Pune, Nasik, Raigad, Solapur, Aurangabad etc.
CURRENT SCENARIO
The 13th Assembly elections were held in Maharashtra , India
The results were declared on October 22, 2009.
The five regions in Maharashtra
share the 288 seats as under –
-
North Maharashtra [5 districts / 47 seats].
-
Vidarbha [11 districts / 62 seats].
-
Marathwada [8 districts / 46 seats].
-
Konkan [6 districts / 75 seats].
-
Western Maharashtra [5 districts / 58 seats].
This is the first assembly election
after the process of delimitation. Delimitation has changed the political geography of the
state, thus it is important to have a brief look at the delimitation and its
impact on the boundaries of assembly constituencies.
Close to 90 of Maharashtra's 288
assembly seats have disappeared into other constituencies has given a new shape
to boundary map of assembly constituencies in Maharashtra .
The number of constituencies
increased in the case of Konkan region only, Mumbai alone has 36 seats now
and in Thane the seats also increased from 13 to 24. In Vidharbha, Western
Maharashtra and North Maharashtra the number
of seats have decreased, and in Marathwada the numbers of seats are same.
1. ANALYSIS OF ELECTORATE CHARACTERISTIC
Maharashtra
is the second most populous state in the Indian Union as per the census of India Maharashtra
in 2009 to be 114.13 million. Out of the total population 75.85 million is population of the
total voters in the state. i.e. about 66%
population of Maharashtra is eligible
to vote.
101 (out
of 288) assembly constituencies can be called as urban because of having more
than 50% population as urban. Of these, 91 have 100 or near 100% urban population. Of the 101 urban
assembly constituencies, 70 of these are located in the Mumbai-Thane-Pune-Nasik
belt.
There are about 75.85 million voters
in the state and out of which 39.77 million are male and 36.08 female. Out of these 75.85 million
voters, there are 29 million urban voters in 101 urban assembly constituencies.
Out of 29 million, there are 15.66 million urban male voters as well as 13.94
million female urban voters. These characteristics will definitely impact
politics in urban areas. In the 101 urban assembly constituencies, the
largest constituency in terms of electorate is Chinchwad in Pune dist (3.91
lakhs); in fact it also the largest constituency in the state. There are
about 33 assembly constituencies out of 101 where electorate is more than 3
lakhs. The smallest constituency in terms of total electorate is Deolali
Cantt in Nasik dist (2.2 lakhs), where as the smallest
constituency electorate wise in the state is Kudal in Sindhudurg dist (1.8
lakhs) In
Mumbai, the largest constituency is Chandivali (3.68 lakhs) and smallest is
Vikhroli (2.36 lakhs).
2. ANALYSIS OF ELECTION DATA
Results for the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly
Election of 2009 were declared on 22nd October 2009. By the end of
the day the political picture for the next five years became clear.
This election is very significant in
many ways:
- Firstly, the elections were fought for the first time
after delimitation of constituencies. Earlier elections were fought on the
constituencies formed in 1970s.
- Secondly, the election saw the emergence of Maharashtra
Navnirman Sena. This three year old party was able to win 13 seats in the
assembly; mainly in the urban areas.
- Thirdly, Indian National Congress emerged the largest
political party with 82 seats.
- Fourthly, there were as many as 125 rebel candidates who
contested as Independents. All political parties faced rebellion.
- Fifthly, only 5% women candidates were given candidature
during elections, only 11 women candidates have been elected out of 211
women candidates who contested the elections as against 3348 male
candidates.
a) Analysis
of Election data at the state level
In an assembly of 288, 234 seats had been won by the
two main alliances. The Congress-NCP alliance has won 144 seats as compared
to BJP-Shiv Sena which won 90 assembly seats and the other smaller parties
have won 31 seats, out of 12 sent to RLDS or third front- four each to PWPI and
SP, one each to CPI (M), Lok Sangram, Rashtriya Samaj Paksha (RSP) and
Swabhimani Shetkari Sangathana (SSS). Among the other smaller parties Bahujan
Vikas Aaghadi (BVA), Jan Surajya Shakti (JSS) managed to win two seats each.
Bharip Bahujan Mahasangh (BBM) has won one seat and despite staying away from
the third front.
Among the smaller parties MNS,
contesting the election for the first time, managed to win 13 seats. Independent candidates won 24 seats, among
whom many are in reality the rebels from all the major parties. Maximum rebels
were from NCP, managing to win 11 seats; three each were Shiv Sena and Congress
rebels and one from BJP. The BSP as a party was invisible in this election as
compared to the 2004 assembly election where it shared the traditional vote bank
of Congress in the Vidarbha region, benefitting the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance,
however the voters who voted for BSP in 2004, went back to the Congress party
or the third front.
When we look at the regional picture,
there has been dominance of Cong-NCP combine in all the regions in Maharashtra . The BJP-Shiv Sena combine could not dominate in any of the regions in Maharashtra . Only in the Vidarbha region they have won 27
seats as compared to 28 seats won by Cong-NCP in Vidarbha. The overall
state picture shows MNS in top three in 72 of the 143 constituencies it
contested. Out of the 13 seats in which MNS candidates won 6 were in
Mumbai, all 3 seats in Nasik city, 2 seats in Thane – 1 Kalyan West and Kalyan
Rural, 1 in Khadakwasla - Western
Maharashtra and 1 in Kannad- Marathwada. Besides these, in 1 seat in Vidarbha,
2 in Northern Maharashtra, 2 in Thane district, 5 in Western
Maharashtra and in nearly 11 seats in Mumbai the addition of votes
polled by Shiv Sena-BJP and MNS candidates were more than votes secured by
winning candidates of INC-NCP combine. This clearly indicates that division
of votes between SS-BJP and MNS benefited Congress-NCP in nearly 20 seats.
b) Analysis
of election data of urban assembly constituencies
The Urban voter in the state has also
followed the pattern of the state and shown his faith in the Congress-NCP led
government.
There are 101 urban
assembly constituencies, Out of 101, 77 seats had been won by the two main
alliances; out of which, 42 has been won by Congress-NCP and 35 were won by
BJP-Shiv Sena and the other smaller parties have won 18 seats, out of which
biggest share of 12 seats is won by MNS and 3 by Samajwadi party in Third Front
and other 3 between Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi, Lok Sangram and Jan Surajya Shakti. Independent
candidates won 6 assembly seats, maximum of who were rebels of NCP and Shiv Sena.
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena has won 12 seats in its
first Assembly election. Thus MNS factor has proved important in 2009
Maharashtra Assembly Elections in urban areas. MNS has shown its dominance in
Mumbai, Thane, Nashik and Pune. MNS won
6 seats in Mumbai, all 3 seats in Nashik city, 2 seats in Thane – 1 Kalyan West
and Kalyan Rural, 1 in Khadakwasla -
Western Maharashtra and 1 in Kannad- Marathwada. MNS has won 12 seats, has
stood 2nd in 11 ACs and has been in third position in 33 ACs. Thus
in 56 Assembly Constituencies out of 101 MNS is in top three positions. In
nearly 11 seats in Mumbai the addition of votes polled by Shiv Sena-BJP and MNS
candidates were more than votes secured by winning candidates of INC-NCP
combine. This clearly indicates that division of votes between SS-BJP and MNS
benefited Congress-NCP in nearly 15 seats.
Polling in the Urban Assembly Seats
The overall polling percentage in the state was 60.03%, and
in the urban assembly constituencies the polling percentage was 48.62%. Ichalkaranji assembly constituency in Kolhapur
In the specific urban areas Mumbai city and suburban areas
total polling was a dismal 46.11% where as the Thane dist was even worse with
43.49% and in the urban areas in and around Pune votes polled were mere 47.13%. Thus it shows that the three major urban nerve centres of Maharashtra had the least interest in the election.
3. ANALYSIS OF CANDIDATE CHARACTERISTICS
In the assembly election there were 3559 candidates,
including 211 women fighting the election for the 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra . In urban Maharashtra ,
there were 1380 candidates; including 74 women candidates fought the election
for the 101 urban assembly constituencies. In 1380 candidates, 707 are
independents; nearly half of the candidates were independents. Highest number of contesting
Candidates were in Aurnagabad East (28). While the minimum number of contesting
Candidates were in Dombivali (6). Highest number of independent candidates were
in Malabar Hill – 19 independent candidates contested elections and Lowest
number of independent candidates in Charkop and Dombivli - only 1 independent
candidate contested elections.
The candidates are analysed for five
criteria’s:
- Total
Assets
- Criminal
Cases
- Education
- Age
- Political
background
Total Assets:
Out of
the total 3559 candidates, from Maharashtra
contesting the elections; 184 candidates were having assets of more than Rs 1
crore, thus there were 184 crorepatis contesting the elections. Out of these
184 crorepatis; 72 were contesting for the 101 urban assembly constituencies. Interestingly there were 28
candidates in the state with assets more than Rs 10 crore, and 21 out of 28
candidates filed there nominations from the urban assembly seats.
About 57 winning candidates have
total assets in the range of 50 lakhs to 5 crore rupees and about 32 candidates
have the total assets more than 5 crore rupees.
Criminal Cases:
- 55
candidates have criminal cases registered against them.
- Maharashtra
Navnirman Sena 8 winner candidates have registered criminal cases against them.
- 4
Nationalist Congress Party have criminal cases registered against them.
- 12 from Bharatiya Janata Party have criminal cases
registered against them.
- 12 from Shiv Sena have criminal cases registered against
them.
- 10 from Indian National Congress have criminal cases
registered against them.
- 3 from Samajwadi Party have criminal cases registered
against them.
- 4 Independent candidates have criminal cases registered
against them.
- 1 Lok Sangram candidate has criminal case registered
against him.
- 1 Jan Surajya Shakti candidate has criminal cases registered against him
|
Party-wise Break-up of Candidates
with Criminal Cases and their Assets
|
||||||
|
Party
|
Total Seats Contested
|
Candidates with Criminal
Cases
|
Percentage of Candidates
with Criminal Cases
(%)
|
Total Assets of each Party
(Rs.)
|
Total Assets of Candidates
with Criminal Cases in athe Party
(Rs.)
|
Percentage of Criminal
Candidate’s Total Assets to Total Assets
(%)
|
|
INC
|
74
|
24
|
32
|
373,82,13,413
|
173,93,73,030
|
47
|
|
NCP
|
24
|
8
|
33
|
89,52,97,882
|
42,09,55,618
|
47
|
|
BJP
|
40
|
24
|
60
|
202,20,99,635
|
132,27,39,469
|
64
|
|
SS
|
59
|
42
|
71
|
262,73,23,284
|
134,43,21,171
|
51
|
|
MNS
|
71
|
39
|
55
|
105,09,20,989
|
59,77,65,597
|
57
|
|
Total
|
268
|
137
|
|
1033,38,55,203
|
540,51,54,885
|
|
Education:
5 Post
Graduates, 1 Doctorate, 31 Graduates, 5 Graduates and Professionals, 14 are 12th
pass, 25 winning candidates are 10th pass – matriculate, 9 are 8th
pass, 4 are 5th pass, 5 winning candidates have given educational
qualifications which are categorised as others and 2 have not given their
qualifications.
Out of 101 winning candidates 42
candidates are graduates and more qualified where as 59 are below 12th
pass category out of which 13 are not even matriculate.
Age
Out of 101 winning candidates only 18
are young MLAs. 73 winning candidates are middle aged and 9 winning candidates
are senior citizens.
Political Background:
The
analysis of political background of candidates contesting Maharashtra
Legislative Assembly election 2009 reveals that candidates contesting for 36
Legislative Assembly seats from Mumbai predominantly were either sitting
corporators, sitting MLAs or ex- corporators/ex Mayors or ex- MLAs.
Conclusion
The Maharashtra
legistative assembly elections and the victory for the Congress-NCP govt have
proved all the pre-poll issues in the back burner. It is difficult for all the
election experts to find out the reasons for the third term victory for the
govt. The most common being that the MNS spoiled the chances of BJP-Shiv sena
or the effect of delimitation and the urban factor. However, it is very
difficult to conclude about the urban factor after analysing the data of urban Maharashtra . The
urban maharashtra followed the same pattern showed by the state in the assembly
elections i.e. to vote back the Cong-NCP govt back to power.
