Analysis of Election Results of Ten Municipal Corporations of Maharashtra February 2017

Election Results of Ten Maharashtra Municipal Corporations – February 23, 2017

Name of the Municipal Corporation	Bharatiya Janata Party	Shiv Sena	Indian National Congress	Nationalist Congress Party	Maharashtra Nav Nirman Sena	AIMIM	Others
Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation	82	84	31	9	7	3	11
Thane M. C.	23	67	3	34	0	-	4
Pune M.C.	91	12	11	30	1	-	6
Nashik M.C.	66	35	6	6	5	-	4
Nagpur M.C.	101	3	28	1	0	-	6
Pimpri Chinchwad	78	9	0	35	1	-	5
Akola M.C.	48	8	13	5	0	-	6
Amravati M.C.	45	7	15	0	0	-	20
Solapur M.C.	49	21	14	3	0	8	7
Ulhasnagar M.C	32	25	1	4	0	-	16
The above figures are subject to change after	reviewing muncipal corporations final tally

 Results to the elections conducted on 21^st February 2017 in ten municipal corporation of Maharasthra were declared on 23^rd February 2017. Bharatiya Janata Party which is the ruling party at the Centre as well as the state has excelled in its performance in nearly 8 Municipal Corporations. Except Mumbai and Thane where Shiv Sena has emerged as party garnering majority seats, other corporations has BJP as front runner.

The BJP seems to have benefited from breaking up of their 25 year old alliance with Shiv Sena and emerged victorious in 8 Municipal Corporations out of ten. In Mumbai too BJP seats surged from 31 in 2012 to 82 while Shiv Sena showed marginal increase from 75 to 84. The Congress as well as Nationalist Congress Party were both decimated and so is the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena.  The Congress could win only 31 seats against 52 seats in 2012 thus a loss of 21 seats so did MNS. MNS could win only 7 seats against 28 in 2012, thus a loss of 21 seats.  Presumably their is a change in voting pattern. Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) got 3 seats.

The BJP raced towards victory in the Pune Municipal Corporation (PMC), pushing the ruling NCP to a poor second spot. The Shiv Sena, MNS and Congress faired poorly in the PMC polls.

In  Nashik Municipal Corporation too BJP bagged majority seats ie. 67 seats compared to 37 of Shiv Sena. It has pushed Mahrashtra Navnirman Sena in fifth position.

It was in the Nashik Municipal Corporation elections that MNS tasted its first success in 2012 Municipal polls. MNS won its first elections when it bagged 40 out of 122 seats in Nashik Municipal Corporation elections in 2012 and came to power. The MNS had managed to show impressive performance in Nashik after small victory of 13 seats in 2009 Maharashtra Assembly polls. This was the time when Raj Thackeray began to see himself as a kingmaker. However 2017 elections tell a different story. 30 corporators of MNS defected to either Shiv Sena or BJP thus reducing the strength of the party before municipal elections.

In Pimpri Chinchwad , Pune and Solapur which were earlier with NCP and Congress  too BJP seats soared. Thus pushing Congress to third position.

Nagpur Municipal Corporation too has BJP majority. Shiv Sena does not have a strong base in Nagpur. Congress has managed to get just 28 seats due to infighting between factions of Vilas Muttemwar, Nitin Raut, Anees Ahmad and Satish Chaturvedi.

Aggressive and sustained campaign by the Chief Minister – Shri Devendra Fadnavis has elevated BJP to number one position in eight out of these ten Municipal Corporations. Downfall of Congress is due to leadership vacuum in state as well as in the Corporations and factional infighting during electoral campaign.    

BMC Election Analysis – February 2017

On 21^st February 2017, Ten Municipal Corporations will be going to polls. They are Thane, Ulhasnagar,  Nashik, Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Solapur, Amravati, Akola and Nagpur and  Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporations.

It will be interesting to see as to which party gets a majority in the MCGM. Shiv Sena has been ruling party in MCGM along with its partner BJP. However there were serious differences within these two parties which finally resulted in their breakup. Now Shiv Sena and BJP are contesting the civic polls independently so are Congress and NCP. MNS has faced several setbacks with many of its functionaries defecting to other parties. Other parties contesting MCGM election are ABS, MIM, Samajwadi Party and Left Front along with BBM. Republican Party of India (A) has a tie up with BJP only in MCGM elections.

If one assesses the chances of Shiv Sena winning or retaining majority in the 21^st Feb elections; a glance at Assembly Election results of 2014 may be a precursor for shaping the political future of these political parties.

During 2014 Assembly Elections, the  Mumbai Congress managed to retain only five seats unlike 17 seats out of 36 seats in 2009. Thus it lost 12 seats and fared miserably. BJP won 15 and Shiv Sena 14 seats. MIM and Samajwadi party won one seat each, while Raj Thackeray-led MNS drew a blank in the megapolis.

While having a glance at previous MCGM elections the statistics are revealing.

In 2012 Shiv Sena won 75 seats, BJP – 31, Indian National Congress - 52, NCP- 7, Maharashtra Navnirman Party – 27 and Samajwadi Party 9.

In 2007 Shiv Sena had won 84 seats, BJP – 28, Indian National Congress 75, NCP – 14, MNS – 7 and Samajwadi Party 7.

A comparison between 2007 and 2012 MCGM Elections showed a clear trend. Decline in seats of Shiv Sena from 84 seats to 75 seats. Increase in BJP seats from 28 to 31. There was a clear decline is Indian National Congress from 75 seats to 52 seats i.e. loss of 23 seats and Nationalist Congress Party from 14 seats to 7 seats. Samajwadi Party gained by 2 seats in 2012 elections. Its tally was 9 from 7 in 2007.

While decline in INCongress seats and NCP seats was drastic it was not so drastic in Shiv Sena. The decline in seats can be attributed to rise of MNS. MNS rose from 7 seats to 27 seats in 2012 thus changing political scenario.

However at present MNS has faced many defections. It did not win a single Assembly seat in 2014 Assembly elections.

So what would be the probable outcome of 2017 elections?

Looking at the present scenario anti incumbency factor could cause some dent in Shiv Sena. There have been repeated exposures of various scams in MCGM and BJP now has started targeting its former partner making allegations of corruption and non transparency. BJP campaign is lead by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and during his tenure the BJP won 52 Municipal council chairman posts which were chosen by direct elections, and has emerged as the number one party in the state.

With the government introducing direct elections for the post of president in the 147 municipal councils, the BJP won 52 seats, Shiv Sena 23, Congress 19, NCP 16 and others 28.

The BJP has surged ahead in elections for the 3,510 municipal council member seats, held on party lines, in the Congress-NCP bastions, especially in western Maharashtra.

The party-wise tally: BJP (851), Shiv Sena (514), NCP (638), Congress (643), MNS (16), BSP (9), CPM (12), local coalitions (384), Independents (324), unrecognised members (119).

In 2011, the BJP was nowhere in the reckoning in 127 out of 147 municipal councils, with its tally at 298 compared to Congress (771), NCP (916) and Shiv Sena (264).

This being the political scenario it remains to be seen whether BJP is able to capitalise on its success in Assembly Elections and Municipal Council Elections especially when there is no Modi Wave or whether Shiv Sena is able to withhold its majority in the MCGM during coming elections.