On
21st February 2017, Ten Municipal Corporations will be going to
polls. They are Thane, Ulhasnagar, Nashik, Pune, Pimpri-Chinchwad, Solapur,
Amravati, Akola and Nagpur and Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporations.
It will be interesting to see as to which party gets a majority in
the MCGM. Shiv Sena has been ruling party in MCGM along with its partner BJP.
However there were serious differences within these two parties which finally
resulted in their breakup. Now Shiv Sena and BJP are contesting the civic polls
independently so are Congress and NCP. MNS has faced several setbacks with many
of its functionaries defecting to other parties. Other parties contesting MCGM
election are ABS, MIM, Samajwadi Party and Left Front along with BBM. Republican
Party of India (A) has a tie up with BJP only in MCGM elections.
If
one assesses the chances of Shiv Sena winning or retaining majority in the 21st
Feb elections; a glance at Assembly Election results of 2014 may be a precursor
for shaping the political future of these political parties.
During 2014 Assembly
Elections, the Mumbai Congress managed to
retain only five seats unlike 17 seats out of 36 seats in 2009. Thus it lost 12
seats and fared miserably. BJP won 15 and Shiv Sena 14 seats. MIM and Samajwadi
party won one seat each, while Raj Thackeray-led MNS drew a blank in the
megapolis.
While having a glance
at previous MCGM elections the statistics are revealing.
In 2012 Shiv Sena won
75 seats, BJP – 31, Indian National Congress - 52, NCP- 7, Maharashtra
Navnirman Party – 27 and Samajwadi Party 9.
In 2007 Shiv Sena had
won 84 seats, BJP – 28, Indian National Congress 75, NCP – 14, MNS – 7 and
Samajwadi Party 7.
A comparison between
2007 and 2012 MCGM Elections showed a clear trend. Decline in seats of Shiv
Sena from 84 seats to 75 seats. Increase in BJP seats from 28 to 31. There was
a clear decline is Indian National Congress from 75 seats to 52 seats i.e. loss
of 23 seats and Nationalist Congress Party from 14 seats to 7 seats. Samajwadi
Party gained by 2 seats in 2012 elections. Its tally was 9 from 7 in 2007.
While decline in
INCongress seats and NCP seats was drastic it was not so drastic in Shiv Sena.
The decline in seats can be attributed to rise of MNS. MNS rose from 7 seats to
27 seats in 2012 thus changing political scenario.
However at present MNS
has faced many defections. It did not win a single Assembly seat in 2014
Assembly elections.
So what would be the
probable outcome of 2017 elections?
Looking at the
present scenario anti incumbency factor could cause some dent in Shiv Sena.
There have been repeated exposures of various scams in MCGM and BJP now has
started targeting its former partner making allegations of corruption and non transparency.
BJP campaign is lead by Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and during his tenure
the BJP won 52 Municipal council chairman posts
which were chosen by direct elections, and has emerged as the number one party
in the state.
With
the government introducing direct elections for the post of president in the
147 municipal councils, the BJP won 52 seats, Shiv Sena 23, Congress 19, NCP 16
and others 28.
The
BJP has surged ahead in elections for the 3,510 municipal council member seats,
held on party lines, in the Congress-NCP bastions, especially in western
Maharashtra.
The
party-wise tally: BJP (851), Shiv Sena (514), NCP (638), Congress (643), MNS
(16), BSP (9), CPM (12), local coalitions (384), Independents (324),
unrecognised members (119).
In
2011, the BJP was nowhere in the reckoning in 127 out of 147 municipal
councils, with its tally at 298 compared to Congress (771), NCP (916) and Shiv
Sena (264).
This being the
political scenario it remains to be seen whether BJP is able to capitalise on
its success in Assembly Elections and Municipal Council Elections especially
when there is no Modi Wave or whether Shiv Sena is able to withhold its
majority in the MCGM during coming elections.
No comments:
Post a Comment